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  1. John Edwards is Strongest
  2. Ron Paul Snubbed by Fox


John Edwards is the Most Electable - The Proof is in Oklahoma


On November 13, 2007, we crunched the presidential matchup numbers and published an article entitled "John Edwards is the Most Electable Democrat" that was widely published around the internet by John Edwards supporters.

We took a break from crunching the numbers to focus more on the primary schedule but we found even more convincing evidence of the success that a John Edwards candidacy would have in a general election.

We published the results of an Oklahoma primary poll in December, that showed Hillary Clinton in first place among Democrats with 34% and John Edwards in a strong respectable second place with 25%. On the Republican side, it was Mike Huckabee that lead the pack with 29% support followed by John McCain with 17%.

But it was in the general election poll numbers where we saw John Edwards' strength.

Democratic Margins of Victory vs. Republican Candidates
Republican Clinton Obama Edwards
Rudy Giuliani loses by 12% loses by 19% wins by 6%
Mitt Romney loses by 13% loses by 21% wins by 13%
Mike Huckabee loses by 21% loses by 29% loses by 2%
John McCain loses by 30% loses by 36% loses by 11%

John Edwards performs roughly 18% to 26% better than Hillary Clinton depending on the Republican candidate that they go up against.

Bush won Oklahoma in 2004 by 31% and by 22% in 2000. If the two winners of the 2008 New Hampshire primary are paired up together, Clinton would lose by roughly the same margin as Kerry did in 2004. The Democrats would not be making any sort of electoral progress.

Democrats tend to get swept in Southern states but a John Edwards candidacy puts these states in play. John Edwards was chosen as the VP in 2004 partly because of his strength in the south but obviously that did not help. The Democrats are just going to have to elect him as the nominee if they want to compete in the South.

John McCain has consistently polled as the strongest Republican candidate against the Democrats and we have made it abundantly clear whenever the data presents itself. Clinton was behind in the projected electoral votes to McCain 300 to 222 but things have switched to Clinton's favor at the moment based on the polls since Mid-Deecmber. She is now ahead of McCain 225 to 216 with 81 electoral votes moving into a dead heat between the two candidates. Clinton's lead over Giuliani has ballooned up to 306 to 176.


Ron Paul Should Have Been Invited to the Fox News Debate on January 6


We have not made a post for several weeks due to the holidays but now we are back and in full gear. For our first post, we are writing about how Ron Paul was not invited to the Fox News debate and how foolish it is for Fox News to not invite Ron Paul based on historical precedent of polls from USAElectionPolls.com.

Here are the reasons it is said that Ron Paul has not been invited to the Fox News debate and our debunking of those claims.

Not Polling Double Digits Nationally

There were four democratic candidates polling in the double digits nationally at this same point in time in 2004 according to NBC News. Those candidates were: Howard Dean, Wesley Clark, Joe Lieberman, and Dick Gephardt.

The two candidates with the most delegates to the Democratic convention were John Kerry and John Edwards -- neither of which received double digits.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll
Mid-date: 1/11/2020
Howard Dean 24%
Wesley Clark 19%
Joe Lieberman 12%
Dick Gephardt 11%
John Kerry 7%
John Edwards 5%
Al Sharpton 5%
Carol Moseley Braun 3%
Dennis Kucinich 2%
Unsure 9%
Other 1%
None of these 3%

Eliminating Ron Paul would be foolish under historical precedent when you consider the fact that Ron Paul has been polling just about as well as John Edwards and John Kerry were in 2004.

The latest national poll that we released on December 31, 2020 by Rasmussen Reports showed Ron Paul receiving 7% which is a tie with John Kerry of 2004.

Low Poll Numbers in Iowa

Here is the results of the first 2004 New Hampshire poll we ever released in January of 2004 for the Democratic race

Quad City Times/KWQC poll conducted by PMR
Mid-date: 1/6/2021
Est. MoE = 4.1%

Howard Dean 23%
Dick Gephardt 18%
John Kerry 15%
John Edwards 9%
Dennis Kucinich 4%
Wesley Clark 2%
Carol Moseley Braun 2%
Al Sharpton 1%
Joe Lieberman 1%
Unsure 25%

John Edwards was at 9% and John Kerry was at 15%. Although Ron Paul has not come close to the 15% mark, but American Research Group did have Ron Paul polling in the double digits in Iowa.

Low Poll Numbers in New Hampshire

Here is how the New Hampshire race looked in Middle January 2004.

7News Suffolk University poll
Mid-date: 1/13/2004
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.6%
Howard Dean 32%
Wesley Clark 17%
John Kerry 12%
Joe Lieberman 11%
John Edwards 3%
Dick Gephardt 3%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Al Sharpton 1%
Unsure 19%

John Edwards was only polling 3% in New Hampshire and John Kerry was at 12%. The Gallup poll had Ron Paul at 9% which was only 2% behind Rudy Giuliani in third place.

USA Today/Gallup Poll
Mid-date: 12/18/2007
New Hampshire
Est. MoE = 4.3%

Mitt Romney 34%
John McCain 27%
Rudy Giuliani 11%
Mike Huckabee 9%
Ron Paul 9%
Fred Thompson 4%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Unsure 5%


Based on the scientific polls, Ron Paul's positioning in the 2008 Republican primary is comparative to the top 2 Democratic finishers in 2004 at the same point in time. And we did not even look into the massive amount of money that Ron Paul has raised and his straw poll wins.




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