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Clinton Most Competitive Against McCain


We've updated a slew of presidential matchup polls and now have Hillary Clinton 10 electoral votes ahead of John McCain in what appears to be a very close race between those two candidates. Clinton, based on our estimates, would get 269 electoral votes, one shy of the magic number of 270.

Barack Obama, on the other hand, gets beat by John McCain in some key states that Democrats need to win in November, including the great state of New York. That New York poll has Obama within the margin of error so to say that it is a guarantee for McCain would be a stretch but the fact of the matter remains; Obama is behind in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida by considerable margins with New York and Michigan being toss-ups.

State #EV End Date Barack Obama John McCain
Ohio 20 4/8/08 40.0 47.0
Pennsylvania 21 4/4/08 42.0 47.0
New York 31 4/4/08 46.0 48.0
Michigan 17 3/12/08 41.0 44.0
Florida 27 4/2/08 37.0 46.0

With Hillary Clinton, here is how those five states break down.

State #EV End Date Hillary Clinton John McCain
Ohio 20 4/8/08 42.0 47.0
Pennsylvania 21 4/4/08 47.0 41.0
New York 31 4/4/08 48.0 46.0
Michigan 17 3/12/08 43.0 46.0
Florida 27 4/2/08 44.0 42.0

She would still lose Ohio, but performs 11% better in PA, 4% better in NY, and 11% better in FL. These two candidates are identical in how they perform in Michigan.

As we head down the stretch, Clinton has to stress the electability argument for the superdelegates to start supporting her in droves and what we outline here will be at the core of her argument.


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