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John Edwards is the Most Electable - The Proof is in Oklahoma


On November 13, 2007, we crunched the presidential matchup numbers and published an article entitled "John Edwards is the Most Electable Democrat" that was widely published around the internet by John Edwards supporters.

We took a break from crunching the numbers to focus more on the primary schedule but we found even more convincing evidence of the success that a John Edwards candidacy would have in a general election.

We published the results of an Oklahoma primary poll in December, that showed Hillary Clinton in first place among Democrats with 34% and John Edwards in a strong respectable second place with 25%. On the Republican side, it was Mike Huckabee that lead the pack with 29% support followed by John McCain with 17%.

But it was in the general election poll numbers where we saw John Edwards' strength.

Democratic Margins of Victory vs. Republican Candidates
Republican Clinton Obama Edwards
Rudy Giuliani loses by 12% loses by 19% wins by 6%
Mitt Romney loses by 13% loses by 21% wins by 13%
Mike Huckabee loses by 21% loses by 29% loses by 2%
John McCain loses by 30% loses by 36% loses by 11%

John Edwards performs roughly 18% to 26% better than Hillary Clinton depending on the Republican candidate that they go up against.

Bush won Oklahoma in 2004 by 31% and by 22% in 2000. If the two winners of the 2008 New Hampshire primary are paired up together, Clinton would lose by roughly the same margin as Kerry did in 2004. The Democrats would not be making any sort of electoral progress.

Democrats tend to get swept in Southern states but a John Edwards candidacy puts these states in play. John Edwards was chosen as the VP in 2004 partly because of his strength in the south but obviously that did not help. The Democrats are just going to have to elect him as the nominee if they want to compete in the South.

John McCain has consistently polled as the strongest Republican candidate against the Democrats and we have made it abundantly clear whenever the data presents itself. Clinton was behind in the projected electoral votes to McCain 300 to 222 but things have switched to Clinton's favor at the moment based on the polls since Mid-Deecmber. She is now ahead of McCain 225 to 216 with 81 electoral votes moving into a dead heat between the two candidates. Clinton's lead over Giuliani has ballooned up to 306 to 176.

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