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Dissecting the Numbers by Region


There has been plenty of chatter out there on the web speculating how a candidate performs in different regions of the country, specifically from those supporting Rudy Giuliani. This is because one of the biggest perceived benefits of Rudy Giuliani on the Republican ticket is that he can be competitive nationally in states the other candidates cannot, allowing the Republicans to get a better grasp on local elections.

So we put it to the test. First, we defined the following regions: Northeast, Midwest, South, and the West. And then we took the latest presidential matchup polls in that region for each Republican against each possible Democratic candidate then bundled that average together...

Republican Midwest Northeast South West
Giuliani 42.6 40.9 47.1 45.3
McCain 44.5 40.0 47.0 43.9
Romney 38.4 33.0 43.8 39.0
F.Thompson 38.8 32.3 45.2 39.2
Huckabee 40.1 28.7 41.1 34.5
Paul 34.7 22.5 39.0 29.0

Rudy Giuliani does in fact perform better against the Democrats in every region against the Democrats except for the Midwest. The only issue with regards to this is the fact that Romney, Thompson, Huckabee, and Paul do not have as high a name recognition as Giuliani and the numbers may not be comparative.

So let's look at how Giuliani is doing in a few of the battleground states and compare how he is doing against Clinton as compared to how Bush did in 2004.

Republican OH MN PA FL CT NJ NM NY
Giuliani 44.0 43.0 42.0 49.5 42.0 41.5 44.0 35.5
Bush in 2004 50.8 47.6 48.4 52.1 44.0 46.2 49.8 40.1

Rudy Giuliani does worse against Clinton in every state we measured than Bush did in 2004 against John Kerry.

To see the poll averages per region for all the Democratic and Republican candidates, check out the following pages.

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Dem vs Rep

  1. Clinton vs McCain
  2. Obama vs McCain
  3. Clinton vs Romney
  4. Obama vs Romney

by Region


(c) President Election, 2008